Devon Di Pentima (FGCU): Population Explosion

The idea of population explosion came into existence after World War 2, between 1939 and 1945. The predicted carrying capacity of our world is considered to be a little under 9 billion people, the world grows by approximately 77 million people a year, or about 211,000 people a day. The current world population is around 6.8 billion people. (U.S. & World Population Clocks, 2010)The United Nations estimated in 2006 that by 2050, the world will exceed the carrying capacity with a population of 9.2 billion people, but some go so far as to say the world population will hit 11 billion people by 2040. The U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nation Population Division reported population growth dropped from 90 million annually to 75 million annually by the early two-thousands, just to say that population fluctuations may not be so simple to predict.

Neo-Malthusianism are those who are concerned about resource depletion or an otherwise ecological collapse due to over population. They promote family planning in an attempt to limit population growth via birth control, educating women or abortion. On the other end of the spectrum is Cornucopians, they are futurists who believe there is enough energy on earth to support the rising population to its estimated peak in 2050 (9.4 billion). They find human intelligence and skills to be the main source of resources. So long as technology advances, cornucopians believe mankind may advance, similarly, however, there is starvation and poverty worldwide. They find this to more so be due to the poor distribution of supplies through current economics and political systems rather than human incapability to produce the resources needed. (Muir, 2008)This is believable when considering such techniques as seen with the green revolution (improved quantity of crops due to seed arrangements) are currently in existence.  However, there is a limit. In over tilling crops soil can become eroded, soil must be given time to re-establish nutrients. Petroleum, which supplies 40% of the world’s energy, also has a limit. Though it is estimated the crude oil out there can support over three hundred more years of energy that is an estimate based off the current population.

In the United States, there are groups dedicated to reduce the population growth because of their fear over going over the human carrying capacity. The Carrying Capacity Network is a non-profit advocacy group that looks to “sustain a future for the United States” with their five point program. Their goals include national revitalization, population stabilization, immigration reduction (which places a cap on 10,000 immigrates allowed every year), sustainable economic activity and resource conservation. (Carrying Capacity Network, 2001) These ideas may seem a little extreme, and only focus on one country.

Many counties have taken measures to secure the birth rate of their country to a fertility rate at the replacement rate of 2.1 (percent roughly based on a child to replace each parent.) If population were to drop below this percent, population could be stunted in time, and there could be a population implosion. China is well known for its strict “Two children to a couple” policy, in 1979 the population of china was to such a point of over population that a campaign was issued to reduce the population through providing services such as free contraceptives, abortions, sterilization, and cash awards.  By 1983 sterilization was mandatory for a husband or wife and only one child was allowed per a parent. Being the birth rate dropped below replacement level, in 1984, the two children per couple policy was established.  (Xiaofeng, 2007)

In some countries, the issue of population is quite the opposite as mentioned above. In Europe, predominately, the birth rate has dropped below the replacement level. In Europe there is a fear of population implosion, which the growth will drop to zero population growth.  Since 1970, 19 countries, almost all of them in Europe, had fallen below the replacement level. Communist countries in the East rewarded pregnancies, free medical and extended hospital stay to promote births. However, by 2003, 43 European countries had low fertility rates, this was attributed to the lifestyle European women lived, higher education caused them to stay in school longer and marry later. By 2050, Europe is estimated to shrink by 70 million people, other societies such as Japan, Canada, United States, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, and South Korea have had fertility rates below replacement level.  The United Nations recently projected that by 2015 half of the countries in the world, two thirds of the world’s population, will show fertility rates below replacement level. Today, it is predicted that 83 countries exhibit below replacement level. (Eberstadt, 2001)

Sources:

Eberstadt, N. (2001, Marc/ April). The population Implosion. Retrieved February 23, 2010, from Catholic Education Resource Center: http://www.catholiceducation.org/articles/population/pc0029.htmlMuir, P. (2008, October 21).

Cornucopian versus New Malthusian perspectives. Retrieved February 23, 2010, from OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY: BI301 HUMAN IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS:http://people.oregonstate.edu/~muirp/cornucop.htm

U.S. & World Population Clocks. (2010, February 23). Retrieved February 23, 2010, from U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.htmlXiaofeng, G. (2007, July 11).

Most people free to have more child. Retrieved February 23, 2010, from China Daily, China’s Global Newsletter: http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/11/content_5432238.htm